The Thursday Delegation: Sitting, Ranking, Wishing
The Thursday Delegation: Sitting, Ranking, Wishing
The ranked choice slow burn is a good time to catch a political breather.
HELLO, ALASKA, and HELLO DELEGATION readers! Happy Thursday!
Your author (that's me, Zack Brown) apologizes for the recent lack of updates. Between travel, the midterms, and decorating for autumn, life gets busy!
By the way, did you hear the news about the midterms? They're over! You can now enjoy some peace and quiet; no more text messages, phone calls, door knocks, or emails...for now. The holidays are right around the corner, so political fundraising messages are about to be replaced with online flash sale emails from retailers. What does your author want for Christmas this year? More subscribers. Forward and share this newsletter!
Nationally, neither party has secured control of the House or Senate. Historically, the out-of-power party does quite well in a president's first midterm. But on Tuesday night, we learned this wasn't a conventional midterm. U.S. Senate races in Nevada and Arizona aren't yet called as of this writing. Democrats need to hold both to secure a majority ahead of the Georgia Senate runoff. If Democrats lose both, Republicans win the chamber; if each party wins one, then the Georgia runoff will determine control.
On the House side, Republicans continue working to secure the 218 seats needed for control of the chamber. Typically, House control is known on the night of the election. However, continued vote counting, in addition to Republicans losing seats that they initially thought they'd win, has caused significant disappointment for national Republicans. Inflation and President Biden's approval rating would normally make winning a House majority a slam dunk for Republicans, but flawed candidates, former President Trump's poorly-decided endorsements, and the continued shockwave from the overturning of Roe v. Wade galvanized much of the liberal base and encouraged many independents to break for Democratic congressional candidates at the last minute.Â
Let's jump in for some quick updates on Alaska's election results!
The Race for U.S. Senate
As votes rolled in on Tuesday, Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka surprised many by ending the night in first place, though far below the 50% + 1 required to win outright. As of this writing, Tshibaka continues to lead by about 3,100 votes — 44% to incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski's 42%. Good for Tshibaka and bad for Murkowski? Not so fast. Remember, these are first-round votes, and you'd need a little bit more than just a 2% lead to feel confident heading into the second tabulation. Lisa Murkowski, who made history by winning her 2010 re-election write-in campaign, has been steadily closing the gap. Thousands of absentee votes continue to be counted, and they appear to be from rural Alaska, which should favor Murkowski.
What's next? The Alaska Division of Elections will continue counting ballots until November 23rd, when they will release final tabulations and results. To be frank, I'd much rather be Lisa Murkowski than Kelly Tshibaka right now. The first candidate eliminated under ranked choice will be retired mechanic Buzz Kelley, who actually dropped out in September and endorsed Tshibaka. Apparently, he didn't communicate his endorsement far and wide enough because he still managed to get over 6,000 first-place votes. As a rock-ribbed conservative, his supporters almost certainly ranked Kelly Tshibaka second, so she will benefit from getting his votes reallocated. However, the race's lone Democrat, Pat Chesbro, earned over 14,000 more first-place votes than Buzz Kelley, and her supporters are inclined to rank Lisa Murkowski second. So, while Tshibaka will benefit from Buzz Kelley's votes getting reallocated, Murkowski will benefit far more from Chesbro's votes being reallocated.Â
Murkowski supporters should feel good about where the Senator is as of this newsletter’s publishing. If Murkowski doesn't win outright when the second round is tabulated, she almost certainly will in the third round. Senator Murkowski herself seems to be feeling good about her chances and said as much to a group of her supporters on election night.
"As we are looking to the lay of the land and what is still out there to be counted, we feel very strongly about how they're going to move and where they're going to move us to. Then we take into account what happens with ranked choice, and that's going to make a difference for us. So we're in a good place this evening," Murkowski said.
The Race for U.S. House
The Congresswoman for All Alaska, Mary Peltola, is arguably the most popular politician in the State (and she has many fans around the country). She made history in August by winning the special election to finish the late Congressman Don Young's term, becoming the first Alaska Native in Congress, the first woman elected to the House from the State of Alaska, and the first Democrat elected to the House from Alaska in a half-century. She's extremely popular and enjoys cross-partisan appeal, with Congressman Young's daughters, Senator Lisa Murkowski, and many of Congressman Young's former staff supporting her.
With over 217,000 ballots counted, Peltola has already won 47% of first-place votes. Her Republican opponents, Palin and Begich, are at 27% and 24%, respectively. Libertarian Chris Bye will be the first eliminated, earning only 2% of the vote. While Republicans state-wide were encouraging a "rank the red" strategy, where Palin and Begich voters make the other GOP candidate their second choice, it's clear that their constant intra-party bickering undercut their chances. Throughout the campaign, Peltola took a positive approach, trying to stay above the fray as her opponents took each other down. It's clear that Peltola's strategy worked; she's very close to meeting the 50% threshold, and it's nearly certain that she will win outright on November 23rd when votes are reallocated. At an event with supporters, she doubled down on the relentless positivity that propelled her to the House.
"I think people are excited to have somebody in electoral politics that isn't interested in tearing anybody down. I think that's been an exciting message," Peltola said Tuesday. "These kinds of messages have really resonated with Alaskans and Americans."
Finally, the House and Senate are shaping up to be closely divided. Murkowski and Peltola's power will be notable if both chambers have slim majorities.Â
